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Год выпуска: October 2024
Автор: The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group
Жанр: Экономика/Политика
Издательство: «The Economist Newspaper Ltd»
Формат: PDF (журнал на английском языке)
Качество: OCR
Количество страниц: 76
THE TROMPIFICATION OF AMERICAN POLICY
- As Kamala Harris has moved closer to Donald Trump’s old policies, Mr Trump has grown more extreme: leader, page 7.
- In a series of eight policy briefs we look at the likely consequences of the election, for trade, tax, immigration, defence, energy and environment, Ukraine, the Middle East and China, from page 14.
How high could oil prices go?
- Geopolitical risk is rising. But so is the supply of oil: leader, page 8.
- Could war in the Gulf push oil to $100 a barrel? Page 57.
Asia’s new tech war
- America is not doomed to lose to China: leader, page 9.
- Analysing the tussle over Asia's digital infrastructure, page 25.
Escaping from China to America
- We travel with Chinese migrants on the deadly journey to America’s border, page 30.
Al wins big at the Nobels
- Awards went to the discoverers of micro-RNA, pioneers of artificial-intelligence models and those using Ai for protein-structure prediction, page 63.
The world this week Politics
- More than 5.5m people in Florida were told to evacuate ahead of Hurricane Milton, the state’s second giant storm in two weeks. Milton was recorded as the strongest hurricane to cross the Gulf of Mexico since 2005. It lost some of its punch by the time it hit Florida’s west coast but still packed winds of 120mph (193kph). The biggest threat to coastal towns came from storm surges, predicted to reach 12 feet (3.7 metres) in some places.
The iron lady
- Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s new president, unveiled her strategy to tackle violent crime. She plans to focus on improving intelligence and investigation capabilities, as well as co-ordination between security forces, much as she did as m ayo r of Mexico City. But tackling well-armed criminal gangs across the country will be a far harder task.
- Near-starvation conditions in Haiti are forcing more young boys to join the criminal gangs that in effect control the country, according to Human Rights Watch. Its report came a few days after the UN said that an attack by the notorious Gran Grif gang on the town of Pont Sonde had killed 70 people.
- Meanwhile, the Haitian government roundly criticised the decision by the neighbouring Dominican Republic to send Haitians who live there illegally back across the border. The Dominicans plan to deport 10,000 migrants a week. Haiti’s foreign minister described scenes of Haitians being rounded up as “brutal” and “an affront to human dignity”.
- Brazilians elected over 5,500 mayors and tens of thousands of city councillors in local elections. Centre-right and right-wing parties were the winners, with incumbents being re-elected in most municipalities. Though local concerns dominated the elections, the results are considered a bellwether for national senti ment. The party of the left-wing president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, did poorly.
- The first legislative election in a decade in the Indian area of Jammu & Kashmir was won by the National Conference, a regional party aligned with Congress, the main opposition party at federal level. An election in the state of Haryana was won by the governing Bharatiya Janata Party, a much-needed boost for the prime minister, Narendra Modi. Its victory was a surprise; polling had put Congress well ahead.
- Two Chinese engineers were killed in a suicide-attack in Karachi. The Balochistan Liberation Army, which wants to separate the province from Pakistan, claimed responsibility. In the past it has attacked Chinese nationals who work on development projects, claiming locals are not being fairly compensated.
- Russia attacked Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odessa again, damaging two ships in separate strikes. Ukraine said Russia was trying to “disrupt the successful work” of its grain-exports corridor. Russia also targeted Kyiv with a barrage of drones, most of which were shot down. Meanwhile, Russian forces closed in on Toretsk, another front-line town in east Ukraine, a week after the fall of Vuhledar.
- Russian-intelligence agents have been trying to cause “mayhem” across Britain and Europe, according to Ken McCallum, the director-general of Britain's MI5. Around 750 Russian diplomats have been expelled from Europe since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, most of them spies. Mr McCallum said Iran had also stepped up its attempts to cause disruption. As well as terrorism, M15 now contends with “state-backed assassination and sabotage plots”.
- In a video address directed at the Lebanese people Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, said they should free their country from Hizbullah to avoid “destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza”. Meanwhile, fighting between Israel and the Iranian-backed militia intensified, and Israeli airstrikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon continued. Lebanon says more than 1.2m people have been displaced.
- Israel marked the first anniversary of the Hamas attacks of October 7th 2023. The government produced a pre-recorded broadcast. Families of the victims of the attacks and the hostages in Gaza, many of whom had refused to take part in the government event, held their own memorial.
- Kais Saied, the president of Tunisia, won re-election in a landslide with more than 90% of the vote. Only two candidates were allowed to stand against him and only 29% of the electorate turned out. Mr Saied’s nearest challenger was sentenced to 12 years in prison for falsifying documents just five days before the poll.
- Taye Atske Selassie was appointed Ethiopia’s president after Sahle-Work Zewde, Ethiopia’s first female head of state, resigned. She had reportedly fallen out with the prime minister, Abiy Ahmed. It is the latest sign of disquiet within the government. Ms Sahle-Work’s appointment in 2018 was seen as evidence of the prime minister’s liberal instincts. However, creeping authoritarianism has since stained his record.
- Counting began in Mozambique’s election to choose a successor for President Filipe Nyusi, who is stepping down after two terms. The most likely winner is Daniel Chapo, Mr Nyusi shand-picked successor, of the Frelimo party, which has ruled Mozambique since independence from Portugal in 1975.
- Britain’s prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, lost his chief of staff just three months after taking office. Sue Gray was a senior long-serving civil servant before joining Sir Keir’s team. Her resignation came after weeks of headlines about controversial donations from a Labour peer, the level of her salary and briefings that her management style was delayinggovernment decisions.
- The British government was criticised by opposition politicians for its decision to hand sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. Under the agreement Britain retains a lease of the military base on Diego Garcia, a vital hub in the Indian Ocean for far-flung American operations. But critics question how secure that arrangement will be once Mauritius takes over.
Ayes to the right
- The race to become the Conservative Party’s new leader was whittled down to Kemi Badenoch, an outspoken anti-wokeist, and Robert Jen-rick, who takes a hard line on immigration. Tory MPs discarded other, more centrist candidates. Conservative rank-and-file members get to choose between the final two, with a result on November 2nd.
The world this week Business
- America’s Department of Justice laid out its proposals for how to deal with Google, after a court in August found that the company had acted illegally to maintain a monopoly in internet search. In a filing to the court the government said the options it is considering include “behavioural and structural remedies” that would stop Google from using products such as Chrome, Play and Android to give it an advantage in search over rivals —in effect, a break-up of Google. Another option is forcing Google to share users’ search data with rivals. Google said the proposals were a threat to American competitiveness. The judge in the case won’t issue his recommendation until August.
What goes up...
- Chinese stockmarkets fell back to earth with a bang, when a meeting of economic officials produced no additional stimulus on top of the measures that were recently rolled out. The blue-chip CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite fell by roughly 7% in a day, their biggest daily declines since the start of the pandemic. Investors are hoping that a briefing from the ministry of finance on October 12th will provide clues about any further stimulus.
- X was restored in Brazil, after Elon Musk relented in his fight with the country’s Supreme Court and agreed to remove content that the court has deemed to be extremist from his social-media platform. X is paying millions of dollars in fines, while the court is unfreezing assets belonging to X and Starlink, Mr Musk’s satellite-based internet provider.
- Rio Tinto agreed to buy Arcadium Lithium for $6.7bn, the biggest takeover to date of a lithium miner. The deal will make Rio Tinto one of the world’s largest producers of the metal, w’hich is an important element in the manufacture of electric cars. Arcadium's customers include Tesla and General Motors.
- Chevron said it was selling its assets in Canada’s tar sands to Canadian Natural Resources for $6.5bn. Deal-making has been rife in Canada’s oil-rich western regions since operations in the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline began in May, boosting shipments of Albertan oil along the west coast and to Asia.
- American employers added 254,000 jobs to the payrolls in September, a higher number than markets were expecting. That caused investors to bet that the next interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve will be smaller than September’s half a percentage point reduction, as it glides the economy towards a “soft landing”.
- New Zealand’s central bank cut its main interest rate by half a percentage point, to 4.75%, following a quarter-point reduction in August. The economy contracted in the second quarter. An even bigger rate cut is expected next month.
- Oil prices remained volatile amid speculation that Israel may strike at Iran’s energy infrastructure and worries about hurricanes in America’s oil-producing Gulf region. Brent crude surged above $80 a barrel, its highest price since August, before pulling back.
- Germany’s economy is now expected to shrink by 0.2% in 2024, according to the government, which would be the second consecutive year of contraction. It is forecast to grow by 1.1% in 2025.
- Talks between Boeing and striking workers at its westcoast factories turned sour, as the company withdrew its pay offer and accused the union of not taking the negotiations seriously. The month-long strike is hampering Boeing’s recovery from a series of production setbacks. It delivered 33 aircraft in September, down from 40 in August.
- Ports on America’s east and Gulf coasts opened for business again, after dockworkers ended their strike. Employers reportedly increased their pay-rise offer from 50% to 62% to get the workers to return.
- China imposed anti-dumping measures on imports of brandy from the European Union, a tit-for-tat move in reaction to the EU’s planned tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. The share prices of LVMH, which owns Hennessy cognac, and other brandy-makers fell sharply. The EU’s member states have voted to move ahead with the tariffs, despite the objections of Germany. China has described the duties as “unfair, non-compliant and unreasonable protectionist practices”.
Dear valued investors
- Samsung Electronics issued a public apology for not meeting expectations on performance and for the sense of crisis gripping the company. The South Korean firm has fallen behind the likes of Micron and SK Hynix in supplying chips for artificial intelligence. Its estimate of profit for the third quarter has come in well below forecasts. “Respected customers, investors, and employees,” Samsung said in an open letter, “these are testing times.”
скачать журнал: The Economist - 12 October 2024
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