The Economist - 17 February 2024

Год выпуска: February 2024

Автор: The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group

Жанр: Экономика/Политика

Издательство: «The Economist Newspaper Ltd»

Формат: PDF (журнал на английском языке)

Качество: OCR

Количество страниц: 76

THE RIGHT GOES GAGA

Meet the Global Anti-Globalist Alliance

• "National conservatism" is dangerous and it's spreading. Liberals need to find a way to stop it: leader, page 9.
• How the new right is forging a global front against liberalism: briefing, page 16.

Goodbye to the radical jobs gap

• A tight labour market has done more for racial progress than any number of dei schemes, page 19.

San Francisco's comeback

• As one of America's great cities builds the future of artificial intelligence, it has a fresh opportunity to rebuild itself: leader, page 72, and analysis, page 63.

China'schipmaking plan

• The country is quietly shaking off its reliance on foreign semiconductor technology, page 53.

The looming hell in Rafah

• Binyamin Netanyahu wants to attack now. His generals don't, page 38.

The world this week Politics

• Candidates tied to Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), the party of Imran Khan, won the most seats in Pakistan’s general election, despite a de facto ban on their campaign. Mr Khan is in prison on multiple charges, which he says are politically motivated. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), which was widely expected to win, came second, PML-N is the party of Nawaz Sharif, Mr Khan’s arch-rival. It will form a coalition government with the Pakistan Peoples Party, which came third. Mr Khan’s supporters said the election had been rigged, which the PML-N denied. The head of the army claimed the poll had been "free and unhindered".
• Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s defence minister, declared victory in the country's presidential election. Mr Prabowo is mired in controversy. He lost the past two elections to Joko Widodo (or Jokowi), claiming that the vote was stolen from him. And he has been accused of committing atrocities, which he denies, when he was in the army, notably in East Timor, where the independence movement had been brutally suppressed.
• In India police fired tear-gas at thousands of farmers trying to reach Delhi to stage a mass protest. Similar demonstrations were held in 2020 and 2021. Farmers are an important voting bloc in India’s general election, due to be held probably in April and May.
• After months of negotiations with the Indian government, Qatar released eight Indian former naval officers who had been sentenced to death for reportedly spying for Israel.
• Thaksin Shinawatra, a former prime minister, was granted parole in Thailand, six months into serving a sentence for graft. Mr Thaksin was ousted in a coup in 2006 and returned from exile last August. He was originally sentenced to eight years, which was reduced to one year by the king, and served his six months in a hospital.

A commander-in-chief?

• The chairman of America’s joint chiefs of staff, General Charles Brown, warned that America’s credibility was at stake, following Donald Trump’s comment that he would not protect NATO countries in Europe from a Russian attack if the countries missed nato targets on defence spending. Mr Trump said he would in fact encourage Russia to attack (he was recalling a conversation with a European leader). General Brown reaffirmed America’s commitment to the military alliance.
• Lloyd Austin, America’s defence secretary, was hospitalised again for complications related to surgery for prostate cancer, causing him to pull out of a trip to Brussels for a meeting with NATO allies.
• Mr Trump meanwhile asked the Supreme Court for a quick ruling on whether to pause the recent decision by an appeals-court panel that he is not immune from prosecution.
• Joe Biden made a crack about his age. "I've been around a while,” he said, "I do remember that.” Earlier, the special counsel investigating the president's misuse of classified documents concluded that no charges would be made, because of Mr Biden's age and mental fitness. He is a "sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory”, said the report. Democrats rallied to Mr Biden's defence.
• Mike Johnson,the speaker of America’s House of Representatives, suggested that the Senate’s package of military aid for Ukraine and Israel (and humanitarian aid for Gaza) would go nowhere in his chamber. Twenty-two Republican senators joined Democrats in voting for the bill, but Mr Johnson wants measures on beefing up border security included in a previous version of the legislation to be restored.
• The House voted to impeach Alejandro Mayorkas, the secretary of homeland security. An earlier vote had decided not to impeach, but the return of one Republican from cancer treatment to vote yes helped to put the yeas over the line. There is little chance of Mr Mayorkas being found guilty of a "systematic refusal” to enforce border policy when he is tried in the Senate.

Clinging on

• The Democrats won the special election for the congressional seat vacated by George Santos, a disgraced Republican, which reduces the Republicans’ already razor-thin majority in the House.
• Palestinian sources said that 74 people, including civilians, were killed in an Israeli bombardment of Rafah, the southernmost city in Gaza, as part of a raid to rescue two hostages held by Hamas. America, Britain and France are among the countries that have urged Israel not to mount a full-scale invasion of Rafah because of the number of civilians who would probably be killed. Meanwhile talks in Cairo over a temporary ceasefire and the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners appear to have become deadlocked.
• Zimbabwe plans to introduce a gold-backed currency to replace the slumping Zimbabwean dollar, which fell by 90% last year and a further 50% so far this year against the us dollar. This would be the second time in little more than a decade that Zimbabwe has scrapped its currency after mismanaging it.
• The un Security Council expressed concern about escalating violence in eastern Congo as the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group advanced on Goma, the capital of North Kivu province. South Africa is to send 2,900 troops to fight armed groups as part of a force deployed by SADC, the regional bloc.
• Azerbaijan attacked an army post in Armenia close to their border, the first fatal skirmish between the two countries since Azeri troops recaptured the region of Nagorno-Karabakh last September. Azerbaijan said the attack was in retaliation foran earlier infraction. Armenia said four of its soldiers were killed.
• Volodymyr Zelensky' made more changes to the top brass of Ukraine’s armed forces following his dismissal of General Valery Zaluzhny, the country’s most senior commanding officer. General Zaluzhny is given much of the credit for stopping Russia’s invasion in February 2022, but has warned that the war has settled into a stalemate. His replacement is Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky, who led the reconquest of Kharkiv from Russian forces towards the end of 2022. Meanwhile, Ukraine sank a Russian naval vessel off the coast of Crimea.
• Russia has put Estonia's prime minister, Kaja Kallas, on a "wanted” list for taking "hostile actions against historical memory and our country”, according to a Kremlin spokesman. Ms Kallas responded on social media that this is “more proof that I am doing the right thing” in supporting Ukraine.

The world this week Business

• America’s annual inflation rate slowed to 3.1% in January. Although that was down from the 3.4% recorded in December, the dip was smaller than had been expected. Stockmarkets shuddered, as investors reduced their bets for an early interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its worst day in almost a year. The next day traders in Britain seemed to be more optimistic about a cut to interest rates there when inflation came in at 4% for January; below forecasts.
• Argentina's inflation rate surged to 254% in January from 211% in December, when it overtook Venezuela as the country with the highest price rises in Latin America. Javier Mi lei, Argentina’s new president, put a rocket under inflation when he devalued the peso and abolished price controls, part of his "shock therapy” package of economic reforms. He has warned of more pain ahead in his effort to stabilise the economy.
• The economies of Japan and Britain fell into recession at the end of 2023. Japan's GDP unexpectedly shrank by 0.1% in the fourth quarter compared with the third. In July to September it contracted by 0.8%. It has now slipped from being the world’s third- to fourth-largest economy. British GDP was 0.3% smaller in the fourth quarter, after shrinking by 0.1% in the third.
• PepsiCo acknowledged that consumers are pushing back against price rises. The food and beverages giant jacked up the price of its products in 2022 and 2023, but it recorded a decline in the volume of snacks and soft drinks it sold last year. Ramon Laguarta, the chief executive, said that was in part due to pricing. Carrefour, a big supermarket chain in France, has stopped stocking Pepsi’s goods because of its "unacceptable price increases”.

Come fly with me

• Cost of living concerns are not stopping people from travelling. TUI, Europe's biggest tour operator, reported a big surge in quarterly revenue, and confirmed it expects sales to rise by 10% this year. Separately, TUI's shareholders voted to retain a sole listing in Frankfurt and delist from the London Stock Exchange, another blow to the City's reputation.
• The wave of consolidation in America’s Permian Basin shale oilfield continued, when Diamondback Energy struck a $26bn deal to buy Endeavor Energy Partners. The combined company will be the third-largest operator in the Permian, behind ExxonMobil and Chevron.
• Arjuna Capital and Follow This, two activist-shareholder groups, asked a court to throw out Exxon's lawsuit against them for the proxy motion they had proposed that called on the company to slash emissions. Arjuna and Follow This withdrew their motion when Exxon lodged the suit, but Exxon is still pursuing it, because it wants "clarity on a process that has become ripe for abuse”. The two investors argue that Exxon’s legal action is unnecessary, and that Exxon instead wants to establish "the novel position” that it can haul its shareholders into court for submitting proxy proposals.
• Nvidia, which has benefited more than most chipmakers in the market for high-end AI chips, hit a market capitalisation of $1.8trn, pushing it past Amazon’s stockmarket value. Meanwhile jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and executive chairman, sold $4bn-worth of stock in the company recently, according to reports. He is still Amazon’s biggest shareholder, holding about 9% of the stock.
• A lawsuit was filed in a federal court seeking class-action status to sue Amazon for misleading users when it introduced ads to its Prime video streaming service. The suit alleges breach of contract by making subscribers pay an extra $2.99 a month for the ad-free service they had signed up to. The case may sound trivial, but for Amazon it is another unwelcome focus on its terms for Prime. The Federal Trade Commission brought a suit against it last year for allegedly duping consumers into signing up to the service.
• The Body Shop put its business in Britain into administration, just five weeks after its new private-equity owner took over operations. The cosmetics and beauty retailer pioneered ethical shopping when it was founded by Anita Roddick in 1976, becoming a ubiquitous presence on British high streets. It runs around 200 shops in Britain now (and many more internationally).

All for nought

Lyft’s share price got an unexpected lift when the ridehailing company made a clerical error in its earnings. The error stated that its adjusted profit margin was expected to rise by 500 basis points (or 5 percentage points) in 2024, rather than 50 basis points (0.5 points). Before the mistake was realised the stock soared by 60%, which was blamed on trading bots for not recognising an obvious typo. Still, Lyft delivered strong results otherwise. Its stock ended the day at its highest point in a year.