The Economist - The World Ahead 2025

Год выпуска: The World Ahead 2025

Автор: The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group

Жанр: Экономика/Политика

Издательство: «The Economist Newspaper Ltd»

Формат: PDF (журнал на английском языке)

Качество: OCR

Количество страниц: 108

The World Ahead 2025

From the editor

IT SEEMS APPROPRIATE that 2025 has been designated the year of quantum science and technology by the United Nations. Because like Schrodinger’s cat, which (in a quantum thought-experiment) was both alive and dead at the same time inside a closed box, 2025 has hovered in a superposition of two very different states, defined by the outcome of America’s election. Now the ballot boxes have been opened, the world knows which 2025 to expect: the one where Donald Trump returns to the White House. With that uncertainty resolved, here are ten themes to watch in the coming year.

America’s choice

The repercussions of Mr Trump’s sweeping victory will affect everything from immigration and defence to economics and trade. His “America First” policy will have friends and foes alike questioning the solidity of America’s alliances. This could lead to geopolitical realignments, heightened tensions and even nuclear proliferation.

Voters expect change

More generally, incumbent parties did badly in 2024’s unprecedented wave of elections. Some were chucked out (as in America and Britain); others were forced into coalition (as in India and South Africa); others were pushed into cohabitation (as in Taiwan and France). So 2025 will be a year of expectations. Can new leaders deliver what they promised? Will humbled eaders change? If not, unrest may follow.

Broader disorder

Mr Trump may push Ukraine to do a deal with Russia and give Israel a free hand in its conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. America’s more transactional stance and scepticism of foreign entanglements will encourage troublemaking by China, Russia, Iran and North Korea (the “quartet of chaos”) and more meddling by regional powers, like that seen in crisis-hit Sudan. But it is unclear whether America would stand up to China in a conflict over Taiwan or in the South China Sea.

Tarrifying prospects

For now, America’s rivalry with China will manifest itself as a trade war, as Mr Trump imposes restrictions and ramps up tariffs—including on America’s allies. As protectionism intensifies, Chinese firms are expanding abroad, both to get around trade barriers and to tap new markets in the global south. So much for decoupling; Chinese firms, building factories from Mexico to Hungary, have other plans.

Clean-tech boom

China’s government has encouraged booming exports of solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles to offset a weak domestic economy. The result is a Chinese-led cleantech boom, with adoption of solar panels and grid storage outstripping forecasts. And the world will soon learn whether global emissions have peaked.

After inflation

The rich world’s central bankers have celebrated the defeat of inflation. Now Western economies face a new challenge: reducing deficits, by increasing taxes, cutting spending or boosting growth. Many may also have to increase defence budgets. Painful economic choices loom. In America, Mr Trump’s policies will make things worse: hefty import tariffs could hamper growth and reignite inflation.

Age-old questions

America has just picked its oldest-ever president-elect. World leaders are greying, along with their populations. Expect more discussion of age limits for political leaders. China, meanwhile, is looking for economic opportunities in an ageing world. In parts of the Middle East, by contrast, a booming youth population, coupled with a shortage of jobs, risks instability.

Crunch time for AI

It’s the biggest gamble in business history: more than $itrn is being spent on data centres for artificial intelligence (AI), even though companies are still not sure how to use it and adoption rates are low (though many workers may simply be using it in secret). Will investors lose their nerve, or will Al prove its worth, as “agentic” systems become more capable and Al-developed drugs emerge?

Travel troubles

The global movement of people, not just goods, faces increasing friction. Conflict is disrupting global aviation. Europe is adding new border checks, and its borderless Schengen system is fraying. The backlash against “over-tourism” will diminish in 2025, but restrictions introduced by many cities, from Amsterdam to Venice, will remain.

Life of surprises

With assassination attempts, exploding walkie-talkies and giant rockets being captured by chopsticks, one lesson of 2024 was to expect the unbelievable. What implausible-sounding things could happen in 2025? Our “Wild cards” section offers a selection to watch out for, including a devastating solar storm, the discovery of lost ancient texts—and even another global pandemic.

To navigate the future, it can help to anticipate the unlikely. We hope you will find The World Ahead 2025 a useful guide to the coming year, whatever surprises await.

Leaders

• A world reshaped
• What Trump will do
• European security
• American deterrence
• Tariff man is coming
• Border crackdowns
• A crunch year for Al
• Solar geoengineering
• Ageing leaders

Superforecasts

• Forecasts for key events

United States

• Trump, the sequel
• What now for the Democrats?
• A strong economy
• Engaging globally
• New energy policies
• Tackling immigration
• Lawfare warfare
• Abortion rights
• Sarah Paine on a second cold war

The Americas

• Trump and Latin America
• Regional migration
• Getting tough on crime
• Banking the unbanked
• Time’s up for Trudeau?
• Javier Milei on Argentina’s economy

Asia

• Asian democracy
• Indian investment
• India’s infrastructure boom
• Ageing in Japan
• Australia’s election
• Could Myanmar’s junta fall?
• Indonesia at a crossroads

China

• Pacific tensions
• Smaller cities are booming
• The South China Sea
• Business challenges
• Post-solar power
• The silver economy

Middle East & Africa

• Israel’s wars
• Israeli politics
• Iran and America
• Gulf partnerships
• The young and restless
• Sudan sinks
• South Africa’s coalition
• Men with guns
• A greener continent?
• A tale of two Africas

International

• A third nuclear age
• Strange bedfellows
• Have emissions peaked?
• Leaders are getting older
• Al v IP
• Taming tourism
• Crowded skies
• How we did in 2024
• Comfort Его on peacemaking in an unstable world

Europe

• Europe’s perilous choice
• End-game in Ukraine?
• A fiscal squeeze
• Problems for Macron
• All eyes on Poland
• Germany votes
• Edgars Rinkevics on European security

Britain

• Labour’s challenges
• Political fragmentation
• Going for growth
• A new coastal path
• Assisted dying
• Wild cards
• Ten unbelievable-sounding possibilities for 2025

Business

• Grid-scale energy storage
• The limits of Al
• Home-made chips
• China goes global
• E-commerce upstarts
• Chinese EVs
• European defence firms
• The future of Boeing
• DEI backlash
• Fei-Fei Li on Al’s future

Finance

• Falling interest rates
• Commodity prices
• Al’s economic impact
• An India shock?
• Flotation tanks
• American stockmarkets
• The trade war spreads

Science & technology

• New drug sand Al
• Cancer vaccines
• Fusion power
• Better climate models
• Space exploration
• Casey Handmer on the economics of energy

Culture

• Video games on film
• Jane Austen at 250
• Repatriation of art
• American football abroad
• Streaming struggles
• China’s micro-dramas
• Tristram Hunt on reinventing museums

Obituary

• The rings of Saturn

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