The Economist - October 18 2025

Год выпуска: October 2025

Автор: The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group

Жанр: Экономика/Политика

Издательство: «The Economist Newspaper Ltd»

Формат: PDF (журнал на английском языке)

Качество: OCR

Количество страниц: 96

The coming debt emergency

• Governments are living far beyond their means. Sadly, inflation is their most likely escape: leader, page 9.
• In many of the world’s big economies, public finances are heading for a crisis, writes Henry Curr. See our Special report, after page 42.
• Would inflation-linked bonds survive an inflationary default? Buttonwood, page 70.

Next-gen narcos

• Brute force is no match for today’s high-tech drug-smugglers: leader, page 10.
• What agricultural drones, submarine seizures and stablecoins reveal about the trade: briefing, page 17.
• America’s new war on drugs takes inspiration from the war on terror, page 21.

US v China: a new episode

• Neither side is as strong as it thinks, page 65.
• The balance of economic terror is no basis for stability: leader, page 11.
• Xi Jinping bets that dramatic escalation can win a trade war: The Telegram, page 57

The Arctic’s real vulnerability

• America’s weakest flank is not near Greenland, but around Alaska, page 54.
• Donald Trump is looking the wrong way: leader, page 12.

Parable of Château d’Yquem

• Plutocrats are turning their backs on luxury assets, page 67.

The world this week Politics

• As the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into effect, Israeli troops withdrew from parts of Gaza. Israelis celebrated as the 20 remaining living hostages were released from Gaza. Israel freed some 1,900 Palestinians in exchange.
• Hamas handed over the bodies of only nine of the 28 dead hostages. Israel’s defence minister threatened to limit the flow of aid into Gaza in retaliation for what he said was a “blatant violation” of the deal.
• Donald Trump hailed “peace in the Middle East” at a summit in Sharm el-Sheikh for the official signing of the ceasefire. Arab and Western leaders joined him, but neither Israel nor Hamas was present. Israeli troops killed a number of Palestinians in Gaza after the ceasefire. Violence broke out between Hamas and other Palestinian groups, including gangs armed by Israel. Hamas deployed thousands of fighters to patrol the streets and executed people it said had collaborated with Israel. Mr Trump said that Hamas was taking out “a couple of gangs that were very bad” but said that the group must disarm soon or “we will disarm them”.

No hard feelings

• Cameroon’s leading opposition candidate claimed victory in the country’s presidential election and called on Paul Biya, the 92-year-old president, to concede. The statement by Issa Tchiroma Bakary, formerly an ally of Mr Biya, complicates the ageing president’s plan to prolong his 43-year rule by another term, particularly if enough opposition leaders choose to join Mr Tchiroma. Official results are not due until October 26th.
• An elite army unit took power in a coup in Madagascar two days after Andry Rajoelina, the president, fled the country following weeks of protests against poverty and corruption. Michael Randrianirina, a colonel in the unit, appointed himself interim president and dissolved most democratic institutions. He promised elections and a return to civilian rule within two years.
• Ashley Tellis, a prominent think-tanker and adviser to the us State Department, was charged with unlawfully retaining documents related to national defence. The FBI found troves of classified records during a search of Mr Tellis’s home, the Justice Department said. The 64-year-old was detained pending a hearing due to be held next week. Deborah Curtis, a lawyer for Mr Tellis, told the Associated Press they looked forward to the hearing where they can present evidence.
• Many news outlets across the political spectrum rejected a new policy issued by America’s Department of War. It requires, among other things, that Pentagon reporters not solicit or publish sensitive materials, even if they are not classified. Journalists from outlets that refused to sign were asked to surrender the badges that give them access to the Pentagon by Wednesday. The Pentagon Press Association said that the measure “gags Pentagon employees”. Pete Hegseth, the war secretary, said that access to the Pentagon was “a privilege, not a right”.
• Agrand jury indicted Letitia James, New York state’s Democratic attorney-general, for alleged mortgage fraud. Ms James has denied the charges, claiming they are part of Mr Trump’s “political retribution”. Last year Ms James successfully sued Mr Trump for financial fraud at his property business. In September this year, the DOJ charged James Comey, a former FBI director whom Mr Trump despises for investigating links between Russia and his presidential campaign of 2016, with perjury.
• The shutdown of America’s federal government stretched into its third week with no sign of a deal in sight. A judge temporarily blocked Mr Trump’s plan to lay off thousands of federal workers during this period, after unions claimed that it was unlawful.
• Meanwhile, Mr Trump signed an order to ensure that members of the armed forces receive pay during the shutdown, instructing Mr Hegseth to use any congressional funds available.
• Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, reappointed Sebastien Lecornu as the country’s prime minister four days after he resigned from the position. In a speech to the French parliament Mr Lecornu promised to suspend an unpopular pension reform introduced by Mr Macron that raises the retirement age to 64. Mr Lecornu hopes that this will be enough to ensure that he survives two upcoming no-confidence votes.
• Mr Trump said he authorised the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela amid rising tensions with Nicolas Maduro, the country’s dictator. In a press conference Mr Trump hinted his administration was “looking at” land strikes. Since last month the United States has killed at least 27 people in attacks on small boats off the coast of Venezuela that Mr Trump alleged were carrying drugs. The latest strike on October 14th killed all six people on board.
• Javier Milei, Argentina’s president, met Mr Trump at the White House to discuss a further support package to prop up the peso. Mr Trump tied American support to the performance of Mr Milei’s party in midterm elections on October 26th, telling reporters “If he loses, we are not going to be generous with Argentina.”
• Dina Boluarte was ousted as president of Peru amid political unrest over a rise in crime. Peru’s Congress chief, Jose Jeri, was sworn in as her successor and pledged to fight the “war on crime”. Mr Jeri, 38, is Peru’s seventh president in nine years.
• Tommy Robinson, a British far-right activist, said Elon Musk was paying his legal fees in a trial that began on October 13th. Mr Robinson was detained by police under counterterrorism laws in July: officers say he refused to give them his phone pin. He has pleaded not guilty and a verdict in the case is due on November 4th.

The fear of God

• Chinese authorities detained some 30 Protestant church leaders including the prominent pastor Jin Mingri in raids across the country. It comes after China’s leader, Xi Jinping, reiterated his call for religious groups to be “sinicised”.
• Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed to a 48-hour ceasefire after dozens were killed in days of border skirmishes. Both countries accuse the other of initiating the attacks, which saw the worst violence between them since the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in 2021. Pakistan has long accused Afghanistan of harbouring militant groups that pose a threat to its safety. Afghanistan denies this is the case.

The world this week Business

• America threatened China with an extra tariff of ioo% and export controls on “critical software” from November 1st, reigniting the trade war between the two countries. President Donald Trump said the measures were in response to new Chinese restrictions on exports of rare-earth minerals, used in high-tech products from smartphones to electric vehicles (EVs). Stockmarkets slumped after Mr Trump’s announcement. On October 10th the S&P 500, an index of big American firms, fell by 2.7% (its biggest one-day drop since he unveiled his “Liberation Day” tariffs in April) before recovering some of its losses.
• Meanwhile America and China introduced tit-for-tat port fees. America now charges Chinese ships $50 per tonne of cargo to dock at its ports. In return Chinese ports will collect a levy of 400 yuan ($56) per tonne from American ships, as well as those controlled by firms that are more than 25% American-owned. China will increase its fees over the next three years.
• The Netherlands took control of Nexperia, a Dutch-based, Chinese-owned firm that makes chips for consumer goods and cars. In 2024 America accused Wingtech, Nexpe-ria’s owner, of helping China acquire semiconductor equipment and placed it on a blacklist that makes it near-impossible for American firms to do business with it. Last month America said it would put restrictions on the subsidiaries of blacklisted firms, too. The Dutch government said that, if Nexperia lost its ability to deliver chips, it could pose a risk to “economic security”.
• Jerome Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates at its next meeting on October 29th. The Fed’s chair warned that “downside risks to employment have risen”. The Fed lowered its main interest rate to 4-4.25% on September 17th, its first cut since December 2024.
• The price of silver hit a record $53 an ounce, beating the previous nominal high of $49-95 that it reached in 1980. The precious metal’s price has risen by more than 80% this year, beating even gold’s blistering rally. The surge has been driven by investors seeking protection from inflation, as well as growing industrial demand: silver is used in everything from solar panels to EVs.

Over a barrel

• Oil prices slumped after the International Energy Agency, a forecaster, said it expects a surplus of 4m barrels a day in 2026. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell to $62 a barrel, its lowest level since May.
• Shares in LVMH rose by 12.2%, their biggest daily increase since January, after the French luxury group reported that its revenue grew by 1% year on year in the third quarter, lvmh’s revenue declined in the first and second quarters of 2024 because of weakening demand from China and American tariffs. European luxury stocks jumped as investors bet on a turnaround for the sector.
• Third-quarter profits at American banks soared. Goldman Sachs’s profit rose by 37% year on year to $4.1bn; JPMorgan Chase’s rose by 12% to $14.4bn. Morgan Stanley’s equity-trading division made $4.ibn in revenue, beating Goldman’s traders for the first time since 2022. An upswing in mergers pushed earnings from investment-banking fees to their highest since 2021.
• A group of firms including BlackRock, an asset-management titan, and Nvidia, America’s leading chipmaker, agreed to acquire one of the world’s biggest data-centre operators for $40bn. They aim to double the capacity of Aligned Data Centres, which runs nearly 80 sites across the Americas. The deal is the latest in a wave of investments intended to provide extra computing power to run artificialintelligence models.
• HSBC offered to take its Hong Kong-based rival, Hang Seng, private for HK$106bn ($13bn). The British bank already owns around 60% of Hang Seng, which holds agrowing number of bad loans because of Hong Kong’s ailing commercialproperty market. Hang Seng’s shares rose by more than 25% following the announcement.
• ASML, a Dutch firm that builds advanced chipmaking tools, reported orders worth €5.4bn ($6.3bn) in the third quarter, exceeding analysts’ expectations. It said it did not expect sales to fall next year, despite forecasting a big drop in sales in China. Meanwhile TSMC, Taiwan’s leading chipmaker, reported profits of NT$452bn ($15.1bn), an increase of 39% on the third quarter of 2024. Taiwan’s economy ministry said China’s new controls on rare-earth exports would not affect its chipmaking industry.

Feeling deflated

• China’s producer-price index, which measures factory-gate prices, fell by 2.3% year on year in September, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. It marks the third consecutive year of falling wholesale prices since October 2022.

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