The Economist - 21 December 2024

Год выпуска: December 2024

Автор: The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group

Жанр: Экономика/Политика

Издательство: «The Economist Newspaper Ltd»

Формат: PDF (журнал на английском языке)

Качество: OCR

Количество страниц: 132

Our holiday double issue

• At the end of a year of violent upheaval and democratic resilience, we count curses and blessings: leader, page 11.
• Climate change appears to be accelerating: leader, page 12.
• What next in Syria? Page 34.
• Opioid deaths in America are declining, page 21.
• Have we reached peak luxury? Page 51.
• Why Christmas films are so bad, yet so good, page 66.
• Plus 57 pages of festive delights...

The world this year

• In a remarkable comeback Donald Trump was elected as America’s president for a second time. Six months before the vote Mr Trump was found guilty of falsifying business records in a hush-money case, the first criminal conviction handed to anyone who has sat in the Oval Office. In July a gunman tried to assassinate the Republican at a campaign event, slightly wounding him; Mr Trump’s rallying cry of “Fight, fight, fight!” energised his base. Kamala Harris’s “brat summer” turned out to be a damp squib for the Democrats, who also lost control of the Senate at the election. Ms Harris became the Democratic candidate when Joe Biden pulled out of the race after a disastrous debate for him.

I could never be president

• Elon Musk aligned himself with Mr Trump and spent $277m backing the Republicans. His wealth has risen by $170bn since the election, thanks mostly to the increase in the value of his Tesla stock.
• Israel invaded Lebanon, after Hizbullah intensified its rocket attacks. In preparation for its offensive Israel injured or killed thousands of Hizbullah operatives by tapping and exploding their pagers and Israeli forces went about eliminating the Iranian-backed militia’s leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah, its long-serving head. The leadership of Hamas was also all but wiped out. Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the terror attacks on October 7th 2023, was killed sitting in a chair. In April Iran launched its first direct missile attack on Israel. America, Britain, France, Jordan and other Arab states contributed to Israel’s defence.
• The war in Gaza ground on, even though Hamas found itself increasingly isolated and boxed in. There was no let-up in the misery for ordinary Gazans caught up in the fighting, and aid agencies warned of possible famine. In December Israel and Hamas seemed to be moving closer to a ceasefire.
• Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, was killed in a helicopter crash. The new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, brought a change of tone to the government, suggesting he would like to restart negotiations with the West. At the start of the year Islamic State bombed an event commemorating an Iranian general assassinated by America in 2020, killing 95 people.
• Syrian rebels rolled into Damascus, bringing an end to the 53-year rule of the Assad regime. The speed of the advance took everyone by surprise, not least Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Moscow. The rebels are led by an Islamist group, which has appointed an interim prime minister until March 2025.

Election day

• Labour won Britain’s election with a stonking majority, ending 14 years of Conservative rule. But things quickly turned sour for Sir Keir Starmer’s new government. Anti-migrant riots soon broke out and a decision to end winter-fuel aid for pensioners was widely criticised. Businesses took fright at a tax-raising budget. In February Michelle O’Neill became the first Irish-nationalist to lead Northern Ireland’s executive.
• Ukraine lost ground in its fight against Russia. In a bold move, Ukrainian troops took the fight across the border into Russia’s Kursk province. But Russia turned to North Korea for soldiers to replenish its forces, the first time in a century it has invited a foreign force into the country. NATO allies sent F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine for the first time and America allowed it to use long-range atacms missiles. Meanwhile, Sweden at last joined NATO.

My vote don’t count

• In Russia Alexei Navalny, the country’s leading opposition figure, died mysteriously in the Arctic prison where he was being held. No serious opponents to Vladimir Putin were allowed to stand in a sham presidential election. Soon after the poll an affiliate of Islamic State in Central Asia attacked a venue holding a rock concert in Moscow’s suburbs, killing 145 people.
• With inflation easing, the big central banks started to cut interest rates for the first time in years. The European Central Bank set the ball rolling, followed by the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. The Bank of Japan went in the other direction, raising its main rate in March for the first time in 17 years. At the end of the year, the Fed cut again, taking its main rate to a range of between 4.25% and 4.5%, but it also signalled that it would drastically slow the pace of reductions in 2025.
• Stockmarkets shuddered at the Fed’s forecast of a slower pace of easing, though it was generally a good year for equities, with markets hitting many record highs. The S&P 500 broke its first of the year in January, two years after the previous record was set. It has risen by 23% in 2024. Japanese markets broke highs set 34 years ago, but they plunged in early August in an unwinding of the carry trade. The Nikkei 225 is up by 17%. Nvidia, which saw its stock increase by 170%, vied with Apple and Microsoft for the title of world’s most valuable company.
• Japan’s new prime minister, Ishiba Shigeru, called a snap election and in a shock result his Liberal Democratic Party lost its majority. He now depends on a minority coalition to govern, just as the country faces some stiff economic challenges.
• In Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina won re-election in January, but huge demonstrations in July and a violent crackdown on the protests caused her to flee the country, ending 15 years of autocratic rule. Elsewhere in South Asia India’s bjp lost its majority in India’s election, forcing Narendra Modi to turn to allied parties for support. Sri Lanka’s presidential election was won by Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a former Marxist. Candidates linked to Imran Khan claimed that Pakistan’s election was rigged; parties aligned with the army formed the government.

Vote, baby, vote

• More than 70 elections were held in 2024 in countries covering more than half of the world’s population. In South Africa the African National Congress lost its majority for the first time since the end of apartheid. Claudia Sheinbaum was elected as Mexico’s first female president. Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s defence minister, declared victory in a presidential election. After a constitutional crisis Senegal’s presidential ballot was won by Bassirou Diomaye Faye, an anti-corruption crusader who was freed from prison less than two weeks before the vote. Georgia’s Russia-friendly governing party was returned to power, despite widespread protests against a law curtailing the media and NGOS.

People have the power

• South Korea’s president, Yoon Suk Yeol, was impeached by parliament after he briefly imposed martial law. Mr Yoon’s order prompted huge protests in Seoul, ca ling on him to resign. The constitutional court now has six months to decide whether he should indeed leave office.
• In France Emmanuel Macron’s centrists lost heavily to hard-right and left-wing parties in a snap parliamentary election. The president appointed a moderate prime minister, who lasted just three months before losing a vote of confidence, the first time the National Assembly has turfed out a government since 1962. Mr Macron appointed another centrist, Francois Bayrou, to the job. It wasn’t all gloom for Mr Macron. The Paris Olympics were a success and a restored Notre Dame reopened just five years after a fire gutted the cathedral.
• The beleaguered German government led by Olaf Scholz also lost a vote of confidence in parliament, triggering early elections for February 2025.
• Hurricane Helene, which hit Florida and the south-eastern United States, was among the worst storms of 2024, killing over 200 people there. Valencia was deluged by flooding from heavy rains; at least 220 people died. In December Mayotte, in the Indian Ocean, was devas tated by a cyclone. Thousands of islanders are missing.

Ballot or the bullet

• Venezuela’s opposition candidate for president, Edmundo Gonzalez, was recognised by America and the EU as the winner of an election, though Nicolas Maduro’s regime thought otherwise and the autocrat stayed in office. America slapped new sanctions on Venezuelan officials after the inevitable post-election crackdown on the opposition.
• It was a bad year for the car industry. The slowdown in demand for electric vehicles hurt Tesla, which reported its first year-on-year decline in deliveries since 2020. Quarterly revenue at byd, a Chinese maker of evs, overtook revenue at Tesla for the first time. Tesla’s stock was languishing until the “Trump trade” boosted shares in companies that markets think will do well under the new administration. In Europe workers at Volkswagen went on strike after the firm announced a painful restructuring.
• The industry was also rocked by Joe Biden imposing tariffs of 100% on Chinese-made EVs (though America imports few EVs from China). The EU, a much bigger market for Chinese EVs, followed suit by levying its own duties. China responded by imposing trade penalties on certain European products. Tariffs will be a big issue under Mr Trump, who has vowed to impose more of them to protect American industry.
• Every company seemed to push out a strategy in 2024 for using artificial intelligence, though Alphabet, Google’s parent company, lost $80bn in market value in a day amid controversy over Gemini, its Al model. In overcompensating for diversity Gemini depicted erroneous images of historical figures, including black Vikings and a female pope. Google also lost a landmark antitrust case over its search engine.
• Boeing had a terrible year. In January a panel fell off one of its planes after take-off, leaving a gaping hole in the side of the aircraft. The incident turned up more safety mishaps in Boeing’s manufacturing process, leading to the resignation of Dave Calhoun as CEO. To top it all Boeing workers went on strike, causing more delays to production.
• Boeing was also humbled by the breakdown of its Starliner spacecraft, stranding two astronauts at the International Space Station. But there were successes in space elsewhere. SpaceX’s Starship took one giant leap forward when the rocket’s booster returned directly to its launch pad. NASA went back to the Moon for the first time since 1972 with its Odysseus lander. Japan became the fifth country to land a spacecraft on the lunar surface. And a private crew of four astronauts flew 1,400km (870 miles) above Earth’s surface, the farthest humans have travelled in space apart from missions to the Moon. The crew was led by Jared Isaacman, whom Mr Trump wants to lead NASA. Mr Isaacman has vowed to “usher in an era where humanity becomes a true spacefaring civilisation”.

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