The Economist - 9 November 2024

Год выпуска: November 2024

Автор: The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group

Жанр: Экономика/Политика

Издательство: «The Economist Newspaper Ltd»

Формат: PDF (журнал на английском языке)

Качество: OCR

Количество страниц: 80

WELCOME TO TRUMP’S WORLD

• Donald Trump’s sweeping victory will shake up everything: leader, page 9.
• His win was resounding. His second term will be, too: briefing, page 14.
• What the Republican trifecta will mean for governing, page 17.
• In his contempt for allies, the new president will probably add to the chaos, page 48.
• The return of Trumponomics excites markets but frightens the world, page 58.
• A crisis for globalisation: The Telegram, page 50.

Lessons for the Democrats

• The losers need to understand that Americans think they’re scary: Lexington, page 22.

In praise of open-source Al

• Open-source Al models are good for the world: leader, page 11, and analysis, page 65.

Why everyone needs iodine

• Simple fixes can avert disaster: leader, page 12.
• Changing diets have led iodine levels to drop dangerously low in America, page 68.

The best TV of 2024

• The small screen claims some riveting shows this year, both new and returning, page 69.

The world this week Politics

• Donald Trump won America’s presidential election, handily beating Kamala Harris and becoming the first Republican to win the popular vote since 2004. He won all the crucial states that decided the election, including Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Iowa, which a recent poll suggested Ms Harris would unexpectedly win, ended up plumping for Mr Trump by a margin of 13 percentage points. Mr Trump said the results gave him a “great feeling of love” and “a powerful mandate”. He will be the first president to enter office who has been convicted of a felony.

A clean sweep

• The Republicans had a good night in Congress too. The party won control of the Senate after taking seats from the Democrats in Montana, Ohio and West Virginia. It is also on track to retain a narrow majority in the House of Representatives.
• Ballot initiatives aimed at protecting abortion rights passed in several states, including Missouri, where an existing ban on the procedure was overturned. Restrictions will remain in Florida, Nebraska and South Dakota.
• Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, sacked Yoav Gallant, his defence minister. Mr Netanyahu blamed a “crisis of confidence” between the pair; the two men have long disagreed over Israel’s strategy in Gaza and Lebanon. Mr Gallant has supported a ceasefire in Gaza that would lead to the release of the remaining hostages; the prime minister is reluctant to pursue such a deal.
• An Israeli court partially lifted a gag order to reveal that a spokesperson working with the office of Mr Netanyahu has been accused of leaking top-secret documents that may have undermined negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages. Mr Netanyahu has denied any wrongdoing by his staff.
• Human-rights campaigners called on Iran to release a woman who was detained after taking off her clothes and walking around a university in Tehran in her underwear in an apparent protest against Iran’s compulsory hijab laws. The university said the woman suffered from a “mental disorder” and had been taken to a psychiatric hospital.
• Fighting broke out at a Hindu temple near Toronto, reportedly between Sikh separatists and other Indian-Canadians. The trouble was sparked by a visit from Indian consular officials. Relations between Canada and India are at a low ebb over the murder of a Sikh activist in Vancouver and claims that Indian officials were involved. Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, said the violence was an assault on a Hindu place of worship and an attempt to intimidate diplomats.
• Australia’s High Court ruled that the government could not force certain migrants to wear tracking devices on their ankles. Around 200 migrants with criminal records but who can’t be deported were made to wear the trackers, after the same court ruled late last year that they could not be held in custody indefinitely. It has now decided that they can’t wear the devices either, because only judges, and not politicians, can impose punishments.
• Germany’s coalition government unravelled, torn asunder by rows over the budget. Olaf Scholz, the Social Democratic chancellor, sacked his finance minister, Christian Lindner of the pro-business Free Democrats, accusing him of putting his party before his country. With the economy in the doldrums, Mr Scholz wants to loosen Germany’s strict fiscal rules in order to borrow more. He has called for a vote of confidence in parliament on January 15th, which he will probably lose.
• The Spanish government sent 10,000 troops, police and national guard to help the rescue effort in the Valencia region, the largest such peacetime deployment in Spain’s history. The death toll from the recent flooding climbed to 219, and was expected to rise. In chaotic scenes some angry residents shouted abuse at King Felipe and local officials, whom they blame for being unprepared for the deluge, during a visit to the scene. The prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, had to be driven away for his safety.
• Ireland’s prime minister, Simon Harris, called a general election for November 29th.
• Kemi Badenoch was elected leader of Britain’s Conservatives, becoming the first black person to head one of the country’s big parties. Straighttalking, blunt and at times abrasive, Ms Badenoch is vocally anti-identity politics and blames regulation for many problems. She says she will fight against what she claims is “left-wing nonsense” from the new Labour government. It is a difficult job. After July’s historic election defeat, the Tories have five years in opposition ahead.
• Maia Sandu was re-elected as Moldova’s president for a second four-year term, despite the Kremlin’s underhand efforts to bolster her pro-Rus-sian opponent, Alexandr Stoianoglo. Ms Sandu’s national security adviser confirmed there had been “massive interference" from Russia during the election.
• A senior Ukrainian official said that Ukrainian troops had fired on North Korean soldiers, who are bolstering Russian forces. The incident took place in Russia’s Kursk border region, which Ukraine marched into in August. Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, noted the “increase in North Korean forces, but, unfortunately, we do not see an increase in response from our partners”. Meanwhile Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, held a meeting with North Korea’s foreign minister at the Kremlin.
• A Russian missile strike on the south-eastern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhia killed six people. Europe’s largest nuclear plant sits just 50km (31 miles) from the city. Russia has stepped up its attacks in the area.
• Eight people went on trial in Paris over the murder in 2020 of Samuel Paty, a teacher who was beheaded by a Muslim fanatic for showing pictures of Muhammad the Prophet in a lesson on free speech. The perpetrator was shot dead by police. The trial focuses on local residents who whipped up a campaign of hate and lies against Paty on social media.

Entree interdite

• New traffic restrictions came into force in Paris, banning cars from entering a five square km (1.9 square miles)zone covering four central arrondissements. Residents who live in the zone can still drive in it. The first six months of the scheme is a “pedagogical period”, where motorists who enter the area will be politely told of the new restrictions. After that they face a stiff fine.

The world this week Business

• Markets responded positively to Donald Trump’s victory in America’s election. The dollar soared, rising by the most in a day against a basket of currencies for two years. The Mexican peso and the Chinese yuan tumbled amid fears of higher tariffs and more trade protectionism. The “Trump trade” also lifted stockmarkets. The biggest winners were companies thought to be favoured by Mr Trump. Tesla’s stock jumped, as did shares in banks, which will profit from Mr Trump’s promise to overhaul America’s regulatory agencies; he has said he will fire the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Bitcoin surged to almost $75,000, beating its previous record in March. Mr Trump wants to make America the “crypto capital of the planet”.
• An eight-week strike by Boeing’s west-coast workers came to an end, after they voted to accept a new contract, which includes a 38% pay increase spread over four years and improved pension contributions. By some estimates the strike cost Boeing around $ioom a day in lost revenue. The company recently raised $21bn in equity markets.
• Apple’s annual report conceded that its future products may not be as profitable as the iPhone, as it invests billions in artificial-intelligence-based services. Mean while, speculation mounted that Apple is set to be fined by the European Union’s competition regulator for restrictions at its App Store, which would make it the first tech company to be fined under the EU’s Digital Markets Act.
• Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway reduced its stake in Apple further. It now has a $70bn holding in the company, down from $178bn in 2023. After the sale of this and other stock, Berkshire is now sitting on a cash pile of $325bn, its largest ever.
• Nvidia replaced Intel on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a stockmarket index of 30 blue-chip companies. Intel, which joined the Dow in 1999, has seen its share price fall by 50% this year and it recently reported a $16.6bn quarterly loss. Nvidia’s stock is up by 190% on record revenues and it has surpassed Apple to become the world’s most valuable company. Meanwhile Palantir, a software firm and another winner in the Al boom, raised its annual revenue forecast again, which pushed its stock UP by 35% over three days.

Giving more than it receives

• Saudi Aramco booked a third-quarter net profit of $27.6bn, down from $32.6bn a year earlier. The Saudi state-controlled oil giant pays out a quarterly di vidend of $31bn, almost all of which goes to the government. Other oil companies have also reported smaller quarterly profits on weaker oil prices and smaller refining margins. Chevron’s plunged by 31%, to $4-5bn, and ExxonMobil’s fell by 2% to $8.6bn.
• OPEC+ made another attempt to try to lift oil prices when it delayed until the end of the year a scheme to raise output. It had planned to increase production by 180,000 barrels a day by December. Oil prices have fallen this year amid forecasts of lower global demand, especially in China. Prices rose after OPEC+ made its announcement, but then fell back again.
• UniCredit, an Italian bank that wants to take over Commerzbank, Germany’s second-biggest lender, reported a higher quarterly net profit and lifted its profit forecast for the year. Andrea Orcel, the chief executive of UniCredit, said his bank would decide within a year whether to pursue a full takeover, which is fiercely resisted in Germany.
• China advanced its complaint at the World Trade Organisation against the EU’s imposition of stiff tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles. The EU says that unfair state aid to Chinese carmakers is undercutting their European rivals, but in its complaint China argues that the new levies are protectionist and “an abuse of trade remedies”.
• Uniper, which was Europe’s biggest importer of Russian natural gas until the invasion of Ukraine brought it to the brink of collapse, said it had started to repay the bail-out it received from the German government. In 2022 the German state nationalised Uniper with a €13.5bn ($14.5bn) rescue package after Russia cut its gas supplies to Europe.

Ballot initiative

• Tech employees at the New York Times went on strike, threatening to disrupt the newspaper’s online coverage of election results. The 6oo-stong workforce of software engineers, data analysts and product managers is in a long-runningdispute with management over pay and conditions, including remote working. The Grey Lady put a “robust” plan in place to cope with the walkout and in the end its famous Needle was able to forecast the election result. Workers say the company now needs to “move the needle” on negotiations.

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