The Economist - 16 November 2024

Год выпуска: November 2024

Автор: The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group

Жанр: Экономика/Политика

Издательство: «The Economist Newspaper Ltd»

Формат: PDF (журнал на английском языке)

Качество: OCR

Количество страниц: 88

WHAT’S ABOUT TO HIT THE WORLD ECONOMY?

• What’s about to hit the world economy? Leader, page 11.
• Donald Trump wants to reshape global flows of goods, capital and labour. The consequences will be felt everywhere, page 68.
• Companies hoping for a tax bonanza may be disappointed, page 61.

What to make of Trump’s picks

• He will go to extremes to dominate the machinery of government: leader, page 12, and analysis, page 21.
• Pete Hegseth, a Fox News host, takes aim at “woke shit", page 24.
• From Ukraine to Israel there is a frantic scramble to flatter and sway Donald Trump: The Telegram, page 60.

Paying the climate bill

• The energy transition will be cheaper than you think: leader, page 12, and briefing, page 18.
• Britain's energy secretary frames the argument over clean power, page 52.
• Will China keep paying to decarbonise the world? Page 40.
• How Al helps climate modellers, page 75.

Inside Ukraine’s occupied territories

• The territory run by the Kremlin is a totalitarian hell, page 48.

Investing in Africa

• Some entrepreneurs and investors think capital markets unfairly penalise Africa, page 43.

The world this week Politics

• Donald Trump started to nominate people for positions in his government, which will take office in January. In foreign and security policy Marco Rubio, a senator from Florida and hawk on China and Iran, will be secretary of state. Pete Hegseth will be defence secretary. An unconventional pick, Mr Hegseth is a presenter on Fox News. He served in the National Guard but has never held a government job. John Ratcliffe, a director of national intelligence in the previous Trump administration, was tapped to head the CIA. Mike Waltz, a congressman from Florida and colonel in the National Guard, is to be the national security adviser.
• On the domestic front Mr Trump’s choice of Matt Gaetz for attorney-general stunned Washington. Mr Gaetz is a fiery congressman known for his partisan showmanship. Thomas Homan, who ran the immigration-enforcement service for 18 months in the first Trump administration, will oversee the border and a crackdown on illegal immigration. Kristi Noem, the governor of South Dakota, will head the Department of Homeland Security. Susie Wiles will be White House chief of staff, the first woman to hold the White House job. Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, a former presidential candidate, are to run a new Department of Government Efficiency.

Senators sing a new Thune

• Senate Republicans elected John Thune, who hails from the establishment wing of the party, to be their majority leader when the new Congress convenes in January. The Republicans will probably hold a 53-47 majority in the new Senate and will retain a slim majority in the House.
• A long-running crisis in Haiti intensified after Garry Conille, the acting prime minister, was fired by the committee that had appointed him just 166 days earlier. Haiti has not had an elected president since July 2021, when Jovenel Moise was assassinated. Every seat in its parliament has been empty since January 2023. A UN-authorised security mission has failed to restore order.
• Deaths due to gang violence increased after 400 Kenyan policemen arrived in June. The UN said recently it had recorded signs of famine in the country for the first time since 2022.
• At least 25 people were killed by a suicide-bomb at a railway station in Quetta, the capital of Pakistan’s Balochistan province. The bomber targeted soldiers returning from a training course. The Balochistan Liberation Army claimed responsibility. Baloch separatists have stepped up their campaign of violence this year.
• Japan’s parliament voted for Ishiba Shigeru to continue as prime minister. Mr Ishiba’s Liberal Democrats lost their majority at a recent snap election and he now heads a fragile minority government.
• A62-year-old man ploughed his car into a crowd of people who were exercising at a stadium in the Chinese city of Zhuhai, killing at least 35. The man was said to be unhappy with his divorce settlement.
• Qatar suspended its role as a mediator between Israel and Hamas. Reports that under pressure from America Qatar was about to evict Hamas, which has its political headquarters in the Gulf state, were “inaccurate”, said officials.
• А 30-day deadline set by America for Israel to increase access for humanitarian aid into Gaza expired. America said that Israel had not broken American laws on blocking aid supplies and will therefore not cut military support. The UN remarked that the amount of aid getting into Gaza was at its lowest point in a year.
• Muhammad bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia and its de facto ruler, described Israel’s actions in Gaza as “genocide”. The prince also condemned Israel’s attacks on Iran and Lebanon. His remarks are the harshest criticism of Israel from the kingdom since the war began.
• America imposed sanctions against a commander in Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, accusing him of overseeing human-rights abuses in West Darfur. It said the RSF, which fights the Sudanese army in the country’s civil war, was responsible for violence against civilians. The UN called for a compliance mechanism to force the two parties to honour their obligations to protect civilians.
• Mauritius became the latest country to chase an incumbent party from office. The opposition alliance won 60 of 62 directly elected seats in parliament in an election, as the ruling party had its seat count reduced from 42 to two. Navin Ramgoolam, the 77-year-old leader of the opposition, has been appointed prime minister.
• Following the collapse of his coalition Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, will seek a vote of confidence before Christmas, rather than on January 15th as previously planned. He is all but certain to lose the vote, paving the way for an election on February 23rd. The conservative Christian Democrats are currently far ahead in the polls.
• The Dutch prime minister, Dick Schoof, described a spate of violence against Israelis and Jews in Amsterdam as “antisemitic” and “shocking and reprehensible”. Police arrested dozens of young men who fanned out across the city on scooters to assault Israelis and Jews, reportedly first asking to see their passports. Before the attacks Israeli football hooligans, who were in Amsterdam for a match, had stirred up trouble by pulling down Palestinian flags and shouting antiArab slurs. Mr Schoof said he was aware of the hooligans’ behaviour, but that was “no excuse whatsoever” for the co-ordinated attack on Jews.

A wolf among the flock

• The Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, resigned over his response to a child-abuse scandal. A recent report concluded that arguably “the most prolific serial abuser” to be associated with the Church of England escaped justice because of the church’s failures. It said that the archbishop held “a personal and moral responsibility” to pursue the allegations further. In his resignation letter, Archbishop Welby acknowledged a “long-maintained conspiracy of silence”.
• The COP29 UN climate conference got under way in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. The delegates were taken aback by the opening speech from Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan's authoritarian leader, who lambasted the “political hypocrisy” and “fake news” of the West. Fossil fuels are “a gift of the God”, waxed Mr Aliyev, and countries like his should not be blamed for selling them on the market. Mr Aliyev’s answer to greens who had threatened to boycott the conference was “Welcome to Azerbaijan.”

The world this week Business

• Markets continued to rally in response to Donald Trump’s election victory. The S&P500 hit another high (it has broken more than 50 records so far this year) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above the 44,000 mark for the first time. The rise in Tesla’s stock pushed the carmaker above a valuation of $itrn, which it last achieved in early 2022. The dollar continued to climb, hitting emergingmarket currencies (over 40% of global trade is invoiced in dollars). Cryptocurrencies also made huge gains. Bitcoin surged by 30% in a week to trade above a record $90,000.
• America’s annual inflation rate rose for the first time since March. It stood at 2.6% in October, up from 2.4% in September. The core rate, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, held steady at 3.3%. Traders still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again next month. It recently shaved a quarter of a percentage point off its main rate, taking it to a range of between 4.5% and 4.75%. The Bank of England also reduced its rate by a quarter-point, to 4.75%.
• Argentina’s annual inflation rate fell to 193% in October, the first time it has dropped below 200% in almost a year. The month-on-month rate slowed to 2.7%, the lowest since November 2021. The government’s ending of a freeze on meat prices has led to a fall in beef consumption in the meat-loving country.
• China’s latest stimulus package disappointed investors by not going far enough to boost household spending. The 10trn yuan ($1.4trn) package is aimed at supporting the country’s distressed local authorities, allowing them to restructure debt through new bond issues.

Robotic vision

• Helped by a strong performance from its Vision Funds, SoftBank reported a quarterly net profit of ¥i.2trn ($7.8bn). Expanding its push into artificial intelligence, SoftBank is building Japan’s most powerful supercomputer in collaboration with Nvidia, usingthe first chips from Nvidia’s Blackwell design. At a launch event Masayoshi Son, the Japanese conglomerate’s boss, said he wanted to develop Al robotics so that a “robot can have passions as a friend”.
• An appeals court in the Netherlands overturned a lower court’s landmark decision in 2021 that ordered Shell to cut emissions by 45% by 2030, including those that stem from the use of its products, based on 2019 levels. The original case had been brought by climate activists. The appeals court found that although companies have a duty of care to reduce emissions, under EU law they “are free to choose their own approach...as long as it is consistent with the Paris agreement’s climate targets”.
• Siemens Energy reported a 12-month net profit of €1.3bn ($1.4bn), bouncing back from a €4.6bn loss in the previous year. The supplier of wind turbines has faced a gale of problems in recent years related to technical problems with its machinery. Its share price has rebounded over the past year, rising by 360%. The company has warned, however, that a second Trump presidency makes the outlook for renewable energy uncertain.
• Volkswagen raised its investment in Rivian from $5bn to $5.8bn, as the carmakers officially began their joint venture to develop electricvehicle technology and software. Rivian is a loss-making American startup and the investment lifeline allows it to launch its R2 model, a smaller, cheaper SUV, next year. The first VW cars to include Rivian’s technology are expected to be on the road in 2027.
• Just Eat Takeaway, a fooddelivery company, decided to sell Grubhub for $650m. Just Eat paid $7-3bn for its smaller rival in 2021, a price bloated by the excess appetite for food apps during the pandemic. It soon regretted its purchase and wrote down Grubhub’s value.
• A rush to fortify homes and businesses ahead of Hurricanes Helene and Milton was a factor behind Home Depot’s rising quarterly sales.
• The release of the long-delayed “Dungeon & Fighter Mobile” game in China helped boost Tencent’s quarterly profit, which rose by 47%, year on year, to 53.2b n yuan ($7.4bn).

The ad breaks

• Two years after it started offering a cheaper subscription package that includes ads, Netflix said that 50% of new subscribers were now signing up for the deal, and that 70m monthly active users have the ad-supported bundle. That is up from 40m six months ago and 15m 12 months ago. Netflix has 283m members in total. It has already sold its ad slots for the two National Football League games it will stream live on Christmas Day. Viewers who escaped to Netflix to avoid TV’s incessant advertising might wonder if all this will eventually sound the death knell for ad-free streaming.

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